2011 Poll Regarding Views of the Civil War, the Confederacy, the CBF

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In April 2011, the Pew Research Center published the results of a poll on the Civil War. This predates the infamous shootings in Charleston. It also predates Sesquicentennial events.

Before showing the poll numbers, keep this is mind:
US Race/Ethnicity (2015 ACS estimates)[8]
By race:[8]

White 73.1%
Black 12.7%
Asian 5.4%
American Indian and Alaska Native 0.8%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2%
Multiracial 3.1%
Some other race 4.8%

Note also that in 2010, 55% of African Americans lived in the South, the rest were spread throughout the NE (17.1%), MW (18.1%), and West (9.8%). That is, African Americans are less than 1/5th of the non-South population.

OK, these are the poll numbers:

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Two key findings:
• 58% of people have no view of the CBF. But more people have a negative view of the flag than positive by rates of 30% to 9%. This is skewed by the feelings of the black population to the flag.

• 49% of respondents said it was inappropriate for public officials to praise Confederate leaders, versus 36% of those who found it appropriate. This was not skewed by race.

The majority of respondents had no reaction to the flag, although (a) only a small minority of people see it positively and (b) the majority of blacks and Northerners don't want public officials to praise Confederate leaders, but white Southerners do.

- Alan
 
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Just some thoughts on the above. Assuming the above numbers are the same today as they were in 2011, there is going to be a lot of tension and controversy over Confederate monuments in the future in big Southern cities with majority black populations.

By rate of 60% to 33%, African Americans don't like politicians who talk favorably about Confederate leaders. That doesn't mean that African Americans have negative feelings about Confederate soldiers, for example. But there is, let us say, some obvious unease with the Confederacy among black folks.

Even with the CBF, which overall is seen neutrally among African Americans in this poll, there are issues. To use political language, among African Americans, the CBF has a favorability rating of 10%, an unfavorability rating of 41%, and a don't know/don't care rating of 45%. But in some localities, that could flip to 45% unfavorable and 41% don't know/don't care. It would depend on the place.

If I'm a politician and I'm getting calls into my office about the CBF, then for every 5 calls I might get about the CBF, 4 of every 5 callers will say they don't like the flag; 1 of every 5 callers will say they do like the flag; and the don't know/don't care folks won't call at all. (This is based on the 10% favorable, 41% unfavorable, and I don't know/don't care rating of 45% split.) That's a really big difference. No, I am not saying that people will actually be making calls about the flag, I'm just using this calls-to-the-office thing as a way to visualize how public input might look.

There are a lot of Southern cities that are majority African American, and with the above numbers, it's not hard to imagine ongoing uneasiness, if not outright protest from a small number of people, concerning Confederate commemoration in their cities. Indeed, given trends of growing public interest in monuments and memorials, such activity and behavior may have been predictable. And of course, there had been small organized protests to the CBF even at the time the poll was done.

It will be interesting to see how this develops. My guess is that state governments will come in and take local control away from cities concerning certain monuments; this is happening right now in some states. I wonder if folks who otherwise champion local people making their own choices will stand up for those localities.

- Alan
 
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Also curious about the number of people participating in the survey, as well as number of people who might be of mixed ethnicity. Demographically, it could be important as there are increasing numbers of people identifying with multiple ethnicities, and could have complicated views about the War, CBF, etc.
 
Also curious about the number of people participating in the survey, as well as number of people who might be of mixed ethnicity. Demographically, it could be important as there are increasing numbers of people identifying with multiple ethnicities, and could have complicated views about the War, CBF, etc.

Information about the survey is here. From the link:

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted March 30-April 3, 2011 among a national sample of 1,507 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (1,001 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 506 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 215 who had no landline telephone).
Alan
 
Information about the survey is here. From the link:

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted March 30-April 3, 2011 among a national sample of 1,507 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (1,001 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 506 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 215 who had no landline telephone).
Alan
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

This is an important point to make, and wording will often be an issue which can also indicate bias. Your thread is an interesting comparison to the Poll I undertook here with regard to the Confederate Battle Flag, and I appreciate you sharing it. There are many variables when it comes to polling, and consideration of the results must keep this in mind. The Poll I conducted sought the views of those who have an in depth knowledge and understanding of the Civil War (from which the representation of the flag comes) and who could act as a touchstone in relation to that flag and what it might still symbolize. There is a validity in all these things, which must also be countered by more thorough research, and you have helped to provide some of that here.
 
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

This is an important point to make, and wording will often be an issue which can also indicate bias. Your thread is an interesting comparison to the Poll I undertook here with regard to the Confederate Battle Flag, and I appreciate you sharing it. There are many variables when it comes to polling, and consideration of the results must keep this in mind. The Poll I conducted sought the views of those who have an in depth knowledge and understanding of the Civil War (from which the representation of the flag comes) and who could act as a touchstone in relation to that flag and what it might still symbolize. There is a validity in all these things, which must also be countered by more thorough research, and you have helped to provide some of that here.

The Civilwartalk audience is a specialized one, and almost by definition, it is not representative of entire US. There is value in polling members to see their views on various topics, but our views will not necessarily sync up to what the public at large is thinking and feeling.

- Alan
 
US Race/Ethnicity (2015 ACS estimates)[8]
By race:[8]

White 73.1%
Black 12.7%
Asian 5.4%
American Indian and Alaska Native 0.8%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2%
Multiracial 3.1%
Some other race 4.8%

US Race/Ethnicity (2015 ACS estimates)[8]
By race:[8]

White 73.1%
Black 12.7%
Asian 5.4%
American Indian and Alaska Native 0.8%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2%
Multiracial 3.1%
Some other race 4.8%
--------------------------
Where are the Mexican citizens?
Can't believe only 4.8% "other race" ?
 
In addition to leading questions, polls fail because of the people who are willing to answer polls, in my opinion. Conservatives such as myself are less willing to participate in polls. We are typically older, more private, less trusting, rural and other reasons. Urban young people, progressive and social media savvy are more likely to answer polls.

These are, however, the same young people you saw on TV who were unable to identify a photograph of the then Vice President Biden, but could identify "The Situation." The same kind of people who when asked a fabricated question about something preposterous that did not happen, claimed that they actually saw it.

That is why the polls in the 1994 Conservative Revolution interim election were completely wrong by a large margin and the polls in this presidential election were very wrong. But I could be wrong. I often am.

Regardless of polls, we should not allow the tyranny of the majority to tamp down the minority. Respect has to be mutual. You may have my empathy and respect, but do not demand that I deny my heritage, beliefs or values in exchange for yours.
 
Regardless of polls, we should not allow the tyranny of the majority to tamp down the minority. Respect has to be mutual. You may have my empathy and respect, but do not demand that I deny my heritage, beliefs or values in exchange for yours.

So, the tyranny of a minority is better in what way?
 
So, the tyranny of a minority is better in what way?
Yes, respect HAS to be mutual IF future generations are expected to understand the War, the 19th century way of thinking, politics, society at the time, et al from both sides, MUST be understood and respected....Learn from the past in order to understand the present and become leaders for the future.
Anything less than respect is revisionist, in my opinion.
 
Yes, respect HAS to be mutual IF future generations are expected to understand the War, the 19th century way of thinking, politics, society at the time, et al from both sides, MUST be understood and respected....Learn from the past in order to understand the present and become leaders for the future.
Anything less than respect is revisionist, in my opinion.

I agree.

I just wish others thought as you do.
 
US Race/Ethnicity (2015 ACS estimates)[8]
By race:[8]

White 73.1%
Black 12.7%
Asian 5.4%
American Indian and Alaska Native 0.8%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2%
Multiracial 3.1%
Some other race 4.8%

--------------------------
Where are the Mexican citizens?
Can't believe only 4.8% "other race" ?

That was exactly my first thought too!!

Obviously, Latinos are being lumped in with "white," which just strikes me as bizarre, since I can't even remember the last time I saw any demographic breakdown in which that was done.

The ACS (American Community Survey) has one sort of data by RACE, and another by HISPANIC OR LATINO AND RACE. Check here for ACS Results, and to see the breakout by Hispanic/Non-Hispanic origin. I hope that link works; you might need to click on a link on the page to see 2015 results.

- Alan
 
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--------------------------
Where are the Mexican citizens?
Can't believe only 4.8% "other race" ?
That was exactly my first thought too!!

Obviously, Latinos are being lumped in with "white," which just strikes me as bizarre, since I can't even remember the last time I saw any demographic breakdown in which that was done.
 
Also curious about the number of people participating in the survey, as well as number of people who might be of mixed ethnicity. Demographically, it could be important as there are increasing numbers of people identifying with multiple ethnicities, and could have complicated views about the War, CBF, etc.
I have often wondered how the heck they are even going to keep doing surveys like this in the future, with what is obviously an increasingly artificial "demographic breakdown." Even our "first black president" was only half black. If one of his daughters grows up and marries a "Hispanic" (a category that is itself, by definition, some mixture of European and indigenous American ["Indian"] blood), then what "race" will those children be?
 
One thing to keep in mind that to be Black/African American means you will almost definitely have some European DNA. African Americans have on average about 17% European DNA. One study found that people with 28% or less African DNA self identified as White... meaning that might roughly be where the threshold his for self identification as White vs Black. Of course phenotype isn't directly related to (though loosely) to such percentages and two people who have the same amount of African DNA might have different color skin, this is roughly the average and though there is variance it isn't complete variance.

In this regard being half African doesn't make you half Black, you likely identify as full Black.

To add, this can be very confusing but people of the Hispanic ethnicity are often officially included in the White or Caucasian Race ... This is true in the 2000 & 2010 US Census where recording if someone was of Hispanic/Latino ethnicity/ancestry is a separate value. This is why if you see ethnic breakdowns referred to out of the 2010 census you will often see what we think of as White as "Non-Hispanic White."

This can all be confusing so just wanted to clarify that not referring to Hispanic/Latino people as a race is indeed common and probably the official standard now since it really isn't a "race" but an ethnicity. Things get complicated fast.

Mixed race tracking gets tricky too, though there are less people that identify as that then you might think:

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/RHI625215/00

In the 2010 census only 2.9% of the population identified with "Two or More Races"

That was up from 2.4% in 2000, though not quite a rapid increase.
 
Race doesn't have much to do with DNA and everything to do with social attitudes. The Irish weren't white once. Neither were Jewish people, or southern Europeans. It depends of who's making the categories. And why those categories are important to such people.
 
CivilWarTalk members are what's called "self selected" and by definition not representative of the general population. And since there is no entrance exam, the levels of knowledge about different aspects of the CW are going to be very uneven. I know that's true for me personally. I don't think we're necessarily more insightful about modern issues around the CBF or modern attitudes about the Confederacy.
 
CivilWarTalk members are what's called "self selected" and by definition not representative of the general population. And since there is no entrance exam, the levels of knowledge about different aspects of the CW are going to be very uneven. I know that's true for me personally. I don't think we're necessarily more insightful about modern issues around the CBF or modern attitudes about the Confederacy.
Good point. What I have discovered via the Poll here is that there are layers of perspectives in relation to the CBF, not all of them concurring, and the results can only relate to the options being given. Presented differently, with a greater number of choices, perhaps even asked in the form of a question (rather than a one word option), would create variables as to the result. At the same time, the 'returns' were unexpected to me, and insightful.

Any Poll reflects personal opinions/preferences which cannot be taken to be indicative of the results likely to be obtained via a larger or more varied group, which would give a better indication of the opinions of the population overall.
 
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