I would agree with the others that Lee's strategy was the least bad option to win Confederate Independence. If a conventional army can't outnumber their opponents by at least two to one plus adequate logistical support then it is unlikely to win at least in the pre Airpower era.
Leftyhunter
I go back and forth on this one a little. Starting from the position that there is no given\known 'winning' strategy for the CSA, I look to the three elements necessary for a CSA victory (they are not all required or all mutually exclusive):
1. the Border States join the CSA
2. European recognition\intervention
3. USA tires of war effort.
Lincoln adroitly avoids #1 (initially) and perseveres against #3. He and his diplomatic corps handle the negotiations\Trent Affair and temporarily stave off #2. (and pretty much bury it after the EP). So the CSA isn't getting any help for USA errors toward achieving any of the 3 elements.
As others have pointed out the CSA really needs to win a shorter war rather than a longer one. That makes #3 less likely short-term - unless a truly stunning defeat occurs.
So what can the CSA try to do?
Classic Davis\Lee strategy assumes that a crushing blow in USA territory will be enough to tip #2 & #3. How big does that blow have to be? Is it even achievable (how likely were pipe dreams of the destruction of the AoP and\or the capture of Washington, realistically)? and what are the huge risks if it fails?
I think it was worth the gamble, but it was always a longshot, and obviously it failed historically, with a disastrous consequence for the CSA (the EP).
What if Lee plays for a draw only in the East, and resources are thrown into swinging the western Border States? Could it have worked? We know Lee failed in West Virginia, and met with hostility in Maryland, so perhaps 'turning' the western Border States was only a pipe dream as well.
I guess the test is - if the CSA makes efforts in the West, and no Antietam campaign occurs, therefore no battlefield setback, therefore no doubts about CSA military ability, therefore no EP - does element #2 happen (with a chance for #1)? Is that a fair way to measure against the Davis\Lee strategy?
No axe to grind here. Just trying to think through other options that Davis\Lee might have considered.
- K.