The Longstreet-Gettysburg Controversy

Lee's major premise is wrong. Lee thinks he is the Fox but actually,Lee is the the Rabbit. 75,000 men vs. 100,000 men fighting defensively on friendly territory. Can't turn out well for Lee from the GitGo.
Really, the recent history of the war says Lee had every reason to be confident.
 
Didn't Meade have defensive works he could retreat to at Pipes Creek? Even if the AnV wins at Gettysburg they can't afford heavy casualties. The AnV already did so at Antietam and Chancellorsville.
I am not arguing that Lee could not of won but could he of won a victory and still have enough men left over to defend Virginia?
Or put another way Lee was undertaking an extremely high risk offensive and everything needs to go right. In war that is seldom the case. What would Lee's mathematical probability of success ( assuming it is quantifiable) ve?
Leftyhunter

The Pipe Creek Line is in Maryland.
 
That's totally possible. As I understand it, Lee's intentions were to draw the Union army into the open and destroy them. Then to present Lincoln with terms of peace. Albeit his intentions have been debated for 150 years.
The Baltimore Pike was the primary route Meade would have used for a retreat.
The ANV didn't need to drive the AOP out of Pennsylvania.
My argument is that it's very difficult to beat an enemy deep in his own territory with no secure logistical support and is numerically superior. Not to say it is impossible but not easy.
I am trying to understand how Lee almost succeeded. Even if the AoP abandons Gettysburg they can still inflct heavy casualties on the AnV unless they are thoroughly defeated. Again that is a very tall order.
Leftyhunter
 
It would be quite a different story to tell if Culp's Hill had fallen on the Second Day.
Can't happen. Meade has interior lines more troops and artillery. See my post above re Lee's failure to take into account Meade's interior lines,ability to shift his troops,etc.
 
Lee's major premise is wrong. Lee thinks he is the Fox but actually,Lee is the the Rabbit. 75,000 men vs. 100,000 men fighting defensively on friendly territory. Can't turn out well for Lee from the GitGo.
Actually per Wiki thats about right Union 104k present for duty vs 71 to 75k estimated Confederate.
Leftyhunter
 
The question postulated was, what if Lee had Stuart, or adequate cavalry reconnaissance. With that, the Stonewall Brigade is not used to probe the flank on Day 2 and is instead available for the assault on Culp's Hill. Culp's Hill probably falls, rendering Cemetery Hill untenable and forcing the AotP to retreat back to its supply base at Westminster, MD, and possibly to the Pipe Creek Line.
 
The question postulated was, what if Lee had Stuart, or adequate cavalry reconnaissance. With that, the Stonewall Brigade is not used to probe the flank on Day 2 and is instead available for the assault on Culp's Hill. Culp's Hill probably falls, rendering Cemetery Hill untenable and forcing the AotP to retreat back to its supply base at Westminster, MD, and possibly to the Pipe Creek Line.

Well put, mate! :smile:
 
Ballpark numbers. My point is Lee is significantly outnumbered.
Per history.net 82k engaged Union troops vs 75k engaged Confederate soldiers. On the other hand support troops are kind of important. Unless the Union Army is truly defeated it can still inflct casualties on an army that can not easily replace casualties.
Not to say our friends are wrong that Lee could not of pulled of a Hail Mary Pass but the odds were never good.
Leftyhunter
 
The question postulated was, what if Lee had Stuart, or adequate cavalry reconnaissance. With that, the Stonewall Brigade is not used to probe the flank on Day 2 and is instead available for the assault on Culp's Hill. Culp's Hill probably falls, rendering Cemetery Hill untenable and forcing the AotP to retreat back to its supply base at Westminster, MD, and possibly to the Pipe Creek Line.
That's kind of the theme of every major conventional war if X would of zigged instead of zagged then X side would beat Y side. True a lot of Civil War battles could of gone either way. True Gettysburg could of gone either way but the odds favored the Union.
Leftyhunter
 
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