What if Lincoln had not won the Electoral College?

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Brev. Brig. Gen'l
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I know many hate these what if question, but give this one a try.

What if Douglas had done better and carried enough states so the 1860 presidential election would have when to the House of Representatives to pick a president? I am going to all the electoral votes of California, Illinois, Oregon, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Iowa to the Douglas column. This gives us:

Lincoln 150 Electoral College votes
Breckenridge 72
Douglas 42
Bell 39

Who does the House elect president? The Republic party lack enough votes in the House (118 need 120) to elect Lincoln.The Democrats do not have enough votes to elected either Douglas or Breckenridge. The Constitutional Union Party (Bell) and the Union Party hold the winning votes. this is how I see it, but what do you think would happen.

1. If the House votes in Lincoln the South secedes
2. If the House votes in Douglas the South secedes and Douglas attends to stop them, so Civil War again.
3. If the House votes in Breckenridge the South may or may not secede. If they do leave, Breckenridge allows them to go and we avoid the Civil War. Perhaps the border states stay in the union perhaps not. Breckenridge may or may not give the U.S. Territories to the Confederacy but probably would allow the Territories to vote to stay of leave.
4. The House votes in Bell and the South probably secedes. It is unknown how Bell did not support disunion but how would handle secession is unknown.

I could see the Northern States accepting either Douglas or Bell as president, but I am not sure they would accept Breckenridge especially if he let the Southern State secede and take most of the Territories with them. The South did not like either Douglas or Bell so was a Breckenridge presidency the only way to avoid the war?
 
It's not just a question of which party has the most votes in the House. It's much more complicated than that, because in this scenario the House votes by state delegation, with each state having a single vote (so New York 33 members have the same voting power as Delaware single member).

Assuming that the states delegations in the House vote the same way as their voters did in this hypothetical election, we'd have 7 votes for Douglas, 11 votes for Breckinridge, 3 votes for Bell, and 12 for Lincoln. So Lincoln would still win, because (if I am reading the relevant part of Article Two correctly) if the election is thrown into the House the winner simply has to have a plurality, not an outright majority.
 
It's not just a question of which party has the most votes in the House. It's much more complicated than that, because in this scenario the House votes by state delegation, with each state having a single vote (so New York 33 members have the same voting power as Delaware single member).

Assuming that the states delegations in the House vote the same way as their voters did in this hypothetical election, we'd have 7 votes for Douglas, 11 votes for Breckinridge, 3 votes for Bell, and 12 for Lincoln. So Lincoln would still win, because (if I am reading the relevant part of Article Two correctly) if the election is thrown into the House the winner simply has to have a plurality, not an outright majority.

I was not aware of this thank you for clearing this up for me. Then again would the Bell people have to vote Bell? If they could vote for Breckenridge instead we could become president and we avoid the Civil War. I figure the south secedes if anyone is president other than Breckenridge and they might secede even if Breckenride is president because Democrats lose control of the House.
 
(if I am reading the relevant part of Article Two correctly) if the election is thrown into the House the winner simply has to have a plurality, not an outright majority.

As I read it is a majority that is needed.
Also only the top 3 electoral vote candidates would be in the running.
 
Who was Douglas' running mate? Since Douglas died June 3, 1861, if he'd been chosen by the House (which might still have been dithering in June), his running mate would have become president.

There's also the question of to whom would Bell (last in electoral votes) have his supporters give their votes. That might have lasted through only the first few votes of the House, though.

I've read in several histories that many in the South hoped the election would go to the House, where they would have a better chance to stop Lincoln.
 
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Douglas running mate was Herschel V. Johnson of Georgia. John Bell never gave a position on slavery, but the South did not much like him, he was not a big supporter of the Dred Scott decision. and would probably have let the Territories vote on being free or slave. I am not sure Bell would have supported Breckenridge, but to prevent war he might have. A lot might have depended on if Bell believed the Southern States would secede over the Democrats losing control of the House. Why give your support to Breckenridge to keep the South from seceding if they were going to secede over losing control of the House?
 
The only candidate palatable to the South was Breckenridge, and I don't see secession being the result if he becomes President. That said, a Breckenridge win at most delays the start of the war to 1865.
 
As I read it is a majority that is needed.
Also only the top 3 electoral vote candidates would be in the running.

So there was no hope for Gerrit Smith of the Liberty Union Party being president in 1861? Having Douglas become president was the only real hope of compromise and I think the South would have seceded if Douglas was elected president. So avoiding war was nearly impossible. I am not sure how Douglas would have handled the war and I know very little of Herschel Johnson of Georgia who would have be president thru most of the war.
 
I should add the Herschel Johnson probably would have left when and if Georgia seceded.
 
Process:

- Vote done by House

- done by outging house -- must be done before end of term (March 4, 1861)

- Each State gets one vote

- Winner must have majority

- only top 3 electoral college winners

- If no one picked by march 4, Vice President becomes President

- Vice President picked by Senate -- each Senator gets a vote; majority needed to win; but only top 2 candidates are voted on

- If no VP picked by March 4, President Pro Tem of the Senate becomes acting President (in 1861 that was Solomon Foot, Senator from Vermont -- from the point of view of the secessionist, this would be worse than Lincoln EDIT: This was only the case becuase of the withdrawal of the secessionist states; assuming they stay in, the President Pro Tem was a Senator from Alabama)
 
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In reality, the top 3 electoral college vote winners were Lincoln, Breckridge, and Bell. In order for Lincoln not to get a majority, a few states would have to turn out differently and the top 3 would probably be Lincoln, Breckenridge, Douglas

In the House need 18 votes to win. It might take several ballots and some deal making, but I think eventually no state would vote Douglas; Breckenridge would win.
Lincoln -- CT, IN, IO, KS, ME, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VT, WI = 16
Breckenridge -- AL, AR, CA, DE, FL, GA, IL, KY, LA, MD, MO, MS, NC, OR, SC, TN, TX, VA = 18

IL is a bit of a wild card. There were 9 congressmen from IL -- 4 Republicans, 5 Democrats. It all depends on how the Ds vote. I can imagine the Rs trying to convince one of the D's to vote for Lincoln. If they succeed , say convince Lincoln's friend John McClernand to cross party lines , the states would be split 17 - 17.

In the Senate, Lane would win the VP spot on the first ballot. So a deadlocked House would lead to a Lane presidency.
 
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It is my understanding that Southerners did not like Bell but am not sure why. I have never read that much about Bell. I know he was a save owner but did not support the expansion of slavery in the Territories. During the war he fought for the Confederacy. I would have to guess the fire-eaters could not support his lack of strong support for the expansion of slavery and the South would have seceded had Bell became president. I can not determine if Bell as president would allow the South to go in peace. I know even less of Joseph Lane.
 
It's not just a question of which party has the most votes in the House. It's much more complicated than that, because in this scenario the House votes by state delegation, with each state having a single vote (so New York 33 members have the same voting power as Delaware single member).

Assuming that the states delegations in the House vote the same way as their voters did in this hypothetical election, we'd have 7 votes for Douglas, 11 votes for Breckinridge, 3 votes for Bell, and 12 for Lincoln. So Lincoln would still win, because (if I am reading the relevant part of Article Two correctly) if the election is thrown into the House the winner simply has to have a plurality, not an outright majority.
Only the top three are eligible if the election goes to the House. That is what happened in the 1824 election. Jackson, Adams and Crawford were eligible and Clay, who came in fourth in the electoral vote, was dropped and directed his supporters to vote for Adams (the so called Corrupt Bargain).
 
Only the top three are eligible if the election goes to the House. That is what happened in the 1824 election. Jackson, Adams and Crawford were eligible and Clay, who came in fourth in the electoral vote, was dropped and directed his supporters to vote for Adams (the so called Corrupt Bargain).

I could see the Douglas and Breckinridge factions making a deal to keep Lincoln out.

Knowing what I know about Breckinridge, I can say for certain that he would be utterly mortified to become President under such circumstances.
 
Assuming someone other than a Republican is elected in 1860 there was no reason for secession, at least by the slave states. The idea of secession could be considered by the free states who are about to have slavery pushed upon them through Dred Scott. The division just continues. The North secedes—draw any map you want—but it still has the do-re-me and the industrial might.

The remaining United States will have the territories which will choose slave or free, but given Dred Scot, a state cannot limit slavery.
 
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