Brooks Simpson asks "What percentage of Southerners Supported the Confederacy"

DRW

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Over at cwcrossroads.wordpress.com, Prof. Brooks Simpson poses the following questions. I thought it would be interesting to start a discussion over here at cwtalk:

What percentage of southerners supported the Confederacy?
For purposes of this exercise, we hold to the following definitions:
1. “The South” is defined as the fifteen slave states of the 1860 census. We are not including New Jersey or points west (that would make this too easy to define the Confederacy as a minority movement). Nor will we count the Indian Territory later known as Oklahoma.
2. All people counted in the 1860 census–free and enslaved–regardless of race or color, are defined as southerners. Recall that the three major categories are whites, free blacks, and enslaved people.
Left to you is to offer an estimation (complete with justification) of the number of southern whites who stayed loyal to the Union.
Show your work so that we may follow your reasoning. Let’s allow until next Monday as the deadline for solutions.

Source: https://cwcrossroads.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/research-exercise-what-percentage-of-southerners-supported-the-confederacy/
 
OK, I'll start with some basic numbers from the UVA Census browser. In 1860, the fifteen slavery states included:
12,240,294 people consisting of
1. 8,029,997 white people (65.6%)
2. 259,785 free colored people (2.1%)
3. 3,950,511 enslaved people (32.3%)
 
Over at cwcrossroads.wordpress.com, Prof. Brooks Simpson poses the following questions. I thought it would be interesting to start a discussion over here at cwtalk:

What percentage of southerners supported the Confederacy?

...

....the number of southern whites who stayed loyal to the Union.

The question is worded so poorly, I can't even...

Is it about southerners, or southern whites? It asks about southerners at first and goes on about defining southerners as black, white, slave and free, then ignores all that and asks for whites only.

Is it about supporting the Confederacy, or staying loyal to the Union? I expect there would be enough, among slaves and poor whites especially, who were neutral or who didn't care who won as long as it didn't hurt them personally, that the number supporting the Confederacy would not be equal to the total population minus those who supported the Union, and therefore both numbers would need addressed separately.
 
If anger is the measure of support I would say that the greatest period of support among the White population was not right after Sumter but after the North started making it a "hard" war.
 
Simpson strikes me as a supercilious type of guy so it's hard to take him seriously. And since blacks, free or enslaved were not citizens in either country they should not count. That said, Lincoln received 55% of the vote in 1864, which to me is a good approximation as to the percentage of Northerners who supported the war at that point. That was probably higher than the percentage of Southerners in November 1864 but not as high as the number of Southerners supporting the war in 1861-1863. It's a wash.
 
Over at cwcrossroads.wordpress.com, Prof. Brooks Simpson poses the following questions. I thought it would be interesting to start a discussion over here at cwtalk:

What percentage of southerners supported the Confederacy?
For purposes of this exercise, we hold to the following definitions:
1. “The South” is defined as the fifteen slave states of the 1860 census. We are not including New Jersey or points west (that would make this too easy to define the Confederacy as a minority movement). Nor will we count the Indian Territory later known as Oklahoma.
2. All people counted in the 1860 census–free and enslaved–regardless of race or color, are defined as southerners. Recall that the three major categories are whites, free blacks, and enslaved people.
Left to you is to offer an estimation (complete with justification) of the number of southern whites who stayed loyal to the Union.
Show your work so that we may follow your reasoning. Let’s allow until next Monday as the deadline for solutions.

Source: https://cwcrossroads.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/research-exercise-what-percentage-of-southerners-supported-the-confederacy/
Hard to say. In the border states (Mo, Md, Ky ) more young men joined the Union Army then the CSA. In Ky most young men stayed neutral. Over ten percent of the military age males of the 11 actual CSA states fought for the Union and their where quite a few Unionist guerrillas but its hard to pin down the exact numbers. On the other hand we know the Confederate army had to be called in to assist local militias and by late 1864 had to cede control of parts of Southern territory to them.
Blacks count because they can and did fight against the CSA and every run away slave represents labor that can not be replaced. Has others have stated by what time period of support are we talking about? By middle to late 1864 popular support was far less then in 1861 has measured by desertion and anti- CSA guerrilla activity.
If we include the 15 slave owning states then maybe less then 50% supported the CSA. if we just stick to the 11 states rough guess 75% of the white population supported the CSA almost none of the black population did.
Leftyhunter
 
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I am sorry but I think you would have to count Native American Territory, The Cherokee and other Nations fought for the Confedracy. Brigadier general Stan Watie was the last to surrender. But once again leave the NDN out. :stomp:
At the same time many Indians in the IT fought for the Union or fled the CSA so perhaps its roughly a wash.
Leftyhunter
 
Hard to say. In the border states (Mo, Md, Ky ) more young men joined the Union Army then the CSA. In Ky most young men stayed neutral. Over ten percent of the military age males of the 11 actual CSA states fought for the Union and their where quite a few Unionist guerrillas but its hard to pin down the exact numbers. On the other hand we know the Confederate army had to be called in to assist local militias and by late 1864 had to cede control of parts of Southern territory to them.
Blacks count because they can and did fight against the CSA and every run away slave represents labor that can not be replaced. Has others have stated by what time period of support are we talking about? By middle to late 1864 popular support was far less then in 1861 has measured by desertion and anti- CSA guerrilla activity.
If we include the 15 slave owning states then maybe less then 50% supported the CSA. if we just stick to the 11 states rough guess 75% of the white population supported the CSA almost none of the black population did.
Leftyhunter

Since the free male (including blacks and other racial minorities) population was smaller than the number of Federal enlistments and if true that only 75% of them fought for the CSA, then the statement can be nothing less than an endorsement for the man for man superiority of the 75% that did fight. :biggrin:
 
Since the free male (including blacks and other racial minorities) population was smaller than the number of Federal enlistments and if true that only 75% of them fought for the CSA, then the statement can be nothing less than an endorsement for the man for man superiority of the 75% that did fight. :biggrin:
You might want to instead direct your question to the thread I established in your honor" By what metric is the Confederate soldier better".
Leftyhunter
 
Simpson strikes me as a supercilious type of guy so it's hard to take him seriously. And since blacks, free or enslaved were not citizens in either country they should not count. That said, Lincoln received 55% of the vote in 1864, which to me is a good approximation as to the percentage of Northerners who supported the war at that point. That was probably higher than the percentage of Southerners in November 1864 but not as high as the number of Southerners supporting the war in 1861-1863. It's a wash.


Many soldiers in the Union army voted for McClellan in 1864. The assumption this vote indicates a lack of support for the war is not correct.
 
Over at cwcrossroads.wordpress.com, Prof. Brooks Simpson poses the following questions. I thought it would be interesting to start a discussion over here at cwtalk:

What percentage of southerners supported the Confederacy?
For purposes of this exercise, we hold to the following definitions:
1. “The South” is defined as the fifteen slave states of the 1860 census. We are not including New Jersey or points west (that would make this too easy to define the Confederacy as a minority movement). Nor will we count the Indian Territory later known as Oklahoma.
2. All people counted in the 1860 census–free and enslaved–regardless of race or color, are defined as southerners. Recall that the three major categories are whites, free blacks, and enslaved people.
Left to you is to offer an estimation (complete with justification) of the number of southern whites who stayed loyal to the Union.
Show your work so that we may follow your reasoning. Let’s allow until next Monday as the deadline for solutions.

Source: https://cwcrossroads.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/research-exercise-what-percentage-of-southerners-supported-the-confederacy/

While it was nice of him to define "The South" and southerners, I think the term that really needs definition is "supported".
 
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