Lee sacrifices Petersburg...moves north "What if"

[5fish]

In June of 1864, Lee was in a bitter struggle with a tenacious foe in Grant. They were lock in a bitter contest that moved across the countryside to an unknown place called "Cold Harbor".

Grant wanting to change the contest came up with what some consider ingenious plan to cross the James river and strike at a rail lines in Petersburg cutting off Lee's supplies from NC.

On June 12th, Grant begins to implement his plans and moves his army towards the James river. On June 13th, Lee learns that his opponent had moved off in the night. It will not be for three days before Lee know for certain that Grant has Crossed the James. Lee knew if his contest with Grant turned into siege warfare he would lose..

What if Lee chose to sacrifices Petersburg and Richmond move his army north towards Washington, DC. leaving Beauregard and the Richmond defenses to handle Grant? .

Lee knows the southern capital will most likely fall but will the north allow their capital to fall to Lee. Lee came most likely get to the out skirts of Washington before Grant can reach Richmond.

What is Grant and the union going to do with "Bobby Lee" heading north unopposed?

Grant can not chase after Lee because he crossed the James?

Without Richmond as a prise Grant will not be able to pin down Lee?

Grant may get the southern capital but Lincoln may lose the election?

Will the war still end within the year like it did historically?


A musing "what if"....

[OpnDownfall]

Trading Capital's was not considered a viable option by Either President.
The most likely scenario, is IF Grant decides he cannot get back across the James quickly enough to closely pursue Lee (unlikely) then reinforcements to securely hold the Washington Defenses can be sent by sea quicker than by land. With the remainder, Grant takes Richmond then turns his army north and moves in behind the ANV at Washington.
As at Appomattox, Lee will be boxed in on at least three sides (with, possibly, only the North open).

[Elennsar]

Is this "instead of" or "in addition to" Early's movements?

Lee sacrificing Richmond and Petersburg would probably end the war more swiftly...as stated, Grant could easily reinforce Washington by sea if not by land, and quite possibly take Richmond at the same time (Judging by the Valley Campaign in 1864, the Army of the Potomac's demoralization was not crippling. A limitation, but not a prohibition on further offensive action which held any chance of success.)

Beauregard's forces (including the Richmond garrison proper) are fairly minimal. The gamble is not worth it, even assuming Lee wouldn't be cut to pieces in the field at some point in Maryland or northern Virginia.

Maybe if Grant was the kind of commander who would drop everything and run after Lee...but if he was that kind of commander he wouldn't be where he was. Either in Virginia or in the Union army.

[5fish]

I don't think my esteemed board members are not being visionary in this what if. If Lee follows his historical path then in nine months the war is over and the cause dies.

Lee pull up steaks moves north towards Washington then history is changes and the cause does not die in the Winter of 1865 in the muddy trenches around Petersburg.

If Richmond falls what is lost but a city but if the army dies then all is lost. Lee moves north threatens Washington then Grants hand is forced for the politicians will not let him sit by and allow Washington to be even threaten. A note: Grant had been striping Washington of units to reinforce is army during the Overland campaign.

Grant will most likely send Hunter to cut off Lee or reinforce Washington guard. He will have to most likely will have to split is force and head towards Washington either by sea on land.

Around Washington Lee and Grant will face off with about even numbers in manpower. Now we will find if Grant can win when he does not have overwhelming numbers.

The outcome of the war changes either it will last past it historical end with the defeat of Grant or the war will be over with the defeat of Lee and not at Appomattox.


A vision is needed......

[Elennsar]

Alright. In no particular order.

1) Richmond is a very important city. Above and beyond being the capital, which is not merely of symbolic importance, a fair amount of the Confederacy's industrial resources at in the city. (Tredegar Iron Works. Enough said.) Losing this would be a devastating blow.

2a) Grant can send, at the very least, what was sent historically (with Early's threat): 6th and 19th Corps. If he felt Lee's whole army is threatening, he would almost certainly detach more.

2b) If Lee strips the Richmond defenses, Grant can easily take them, and send only a portion of his army after Beauregard and the fleeing Confederates. This means that he is very likely not be facing Lee with merely even numbers...instead, he is likely to have the numerical advantage. If the forces that joined Sheridan (in additional to the cavalry and infantry from the Army of the Potomac) for his historical campaign against Early are added, Lee is going to be serious outnumbered.

3) Grant has demonstrated in previous campaigns (Vicksburg prior to the siege, anyone?) that he can do a fine job tactically and strategically, and overwhelming numbers are not required. Lee may be a greatly superior opponent to Pemberton, but his senior officer corps is in shambles, and his army in general badly battered. The "Stonewall" Division's three brigades of mostly Virginia troops are at the strength of a decent brigade at best after the Mule Shoe, and few of his other divisions are still reasonably strong.

4) Lee would presumably attack in this what if (after all, his goal is to seize Washington, otherwise his gamble is not worth it), which means that in order for him to win, he has to be able to do sizeable damage to the forces facing him (prior to attacking Washington itself) without suffering losses so great that his army would be effectively useless.

This would be difficult to pull off, particularly with his brigade level and above officer corps in ruins (as stated).

If you can find one brigade that he had under its starting (in 1864) commander, I would be somewhat surprised if you could find two.


Lee may be doomed if he stands a siege. But this gamble would be risky far beyond the potential for reward, even ignoring the consequences of the fall of Richmond.

It would end the war sooner...but not differently.

In the Revolution, though the "capital", Philadelphia is, ultimately, "just a city". Holding it is nice so far as it goes, and it is not good for morale (military or civilian) to lose it, but it would not damage the war effort very much.

This is not true for the Confederates and Richmond.

In order for Lee to win, he has to do the following. This does not include similar requirements for the other Confederate forces, just what Lee has to do.

1) Do such grevious harm to the Army of the Potomac and the other Federal forces that the people of the North are unwilling to put forth the effort to replace them.

2) Remove Lincoln from the picture in a way that does not inspire Union wrath and vengeance, but instead cements the Union demoralization from 1. 2 can also be done instead of 1 if Lincoln is replaced by someone interested in ending the war on "peace at any price" and Davis and the Confederacy's political leaders are able to take advantage of it instead of blowing their chance.

3) If Lincoln is not replaced by a "peace at any price" program, then he must keep his army intact enough so that if the Federals send troops to Virginia from elsewhere, they can be held off long enough for the Union despair to cripple the war effort and lead to "peace at any price" taking over.

4) Hold Richmond, as much of Virgina as possible, andthe Shenandoah Valley. Lose the first and last and an intact army in the field is without supplies or a much of a country to defend.


It is one thing to gamble on the safety of Richmond when it is the risk that the Federals might attack and take it. As in, there is the chance that they might do something that might cause it to fall.

This what if is trading the certainty of losing Richmond and the consequencs of its fall for a long shot chance at victory. I don't see how it could work for Lee.

[DHPatrick]

Originally Posted by 5fish

I don't think my esteemed board members are not being visionary in this what if. If Lee follows his historical path then in nine months the war is over and the cause dies.

Lee pull up steaks moves north towards Washington then history is changes and the cause does not die in the Winter of 1865 in the muddy trenches around Petersburg.

If Richmond falls what is lost but a city but if the army dies then all is lost. Lee moves north threatens Washington then Grants hand is forced for the politicians will not let him sit by and allow Washington to be even threaten. A note: Grant had been striping Washington of units to reinforce is army during the Overland campaign.

Grant will most likely send Hunter to cut off Lee or reinforce Washington guard. He will have to most likely will have to split is force and head towards Washington either by sea on land.

Around Washington Lee and Grant will face off with about even numbers in manpower. Now we will find if Grant can win when he does not have overwhelming numbers.

The outcome of the war changes either it will last past it historical end with the defeat of Grant or the war will be over with the defeat of Lee and not at Appomattox.


A vision is needed......

5fish

I guess if Lee had managed to get to Washington DC capture Lincoln and his cabinet, Grant would have been placed on the 'horns of dilema'. With Lee's shortage of rations, I'm not sure he could have pulled it off. ...but if anyone could, he could.

[OpnDownfall]

One word "Morale" after the experiences of the Overland Campaign, Lee men are being asked to invade the North for a Third Time!' and then attack (Lee's army is too small to besiege) the most heavily fortified city in the East. This is an act of sheer desperation and, IMO, would be seen as such, by not only his officers by also the army.

[Jamieva]

That would have been a disaster for Lee. Grant's goal was the destruction of Lee's army, not the capture of Richmond. If Lee marches on DC, Grant follows and then the ANV is trapped between the AOP behind him and the strong DC fort system in front. ANV gets crushed in that scenario and then Grant is able to march on Richmond at his convience relatively unopposed.

[DHPatrick]

Originally Posted by Jamieva

That would have been a disaster for Lee. Grant's goal was the destruction of Lee's army, not the capture of Richmond. If Lee marches on DC, Grant follows and then the ANV is trapped between the AOP behind him and the strong DC fort system in front. ANV gets crushed in that scenario and then Grant is able to march on Richmond at his convience relatively unopposed.

Jamieva

Guess you discount my 'if Lee manages to take Washington DC'. My argument is dependant on that scenario - whether it is wrong or not.

[Elennsar]

In order for Lee to take Washinton DC, it would be either in far more favorable circumstances than he had in this what if, or on the backs of giant alien space bats.

One almost might as well ask "What if Lee was able to use mind control?"

I don't dispute that this what if is worth a thought or three (the one that is the subject of the thread, not Lee with psionic powers). But in order for Lee to get from the Richmond defenses to the capture of Washington, he has to somehow overcome the obstacles in the way.

As indicated, that's just about impossible as of this point in the war. It would be too easy (relative to Lee's task of avoiding it) to stop him and destroy him in the open.