Invasion of Pennsylvania Whatif

[Elennsar]

I am working on an alternate history speculation involving Lee's second "invasion" of the North, with two unhistorical factors.

1) Stonewall Jackson survives Chancellorsville and is healthy and fit for command. Whether or not he'd do better than Ewell by any great degree, who knows. That comes later on in the sorting out of probable from the possible. However, it means that he is in charge of 2nd Corps, so finding a qualified successor is not necessary.

2) Lee succeeds (somehow) in convincing Davis to concentrate a large portion of the Confederacy's forces not currently attached to his or Bragg's army (Reference to show that this is not without at least the possibility of happening historically: http://ehistory.osu.edu/osu/sources/...ntent=040/0782 )

However, even if Lee persauded Davis that the best way to reinforce the Army of Northern Virginia involves "...bringing troops from the departments of South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. No more can be needed there this summer than enough to maintain the water batteries. Nor do I think that more will be required at Wilmington than are sufficient for this purpose.", that would, assuming the two departments were stripped bare, which seems grossly improbable, produce something around two divisions (on a guess, as I don't have the figures for brigade strength in front of me, close to 15-20 thousand men)

There are also the brigades of Samuel Jones in SW Virginia, and those of Buckner in East Tennessee. It is possible though not necessarily likely that Churchill's brigade (captured at Arkansas Post and exchanged, historically sent to Bragg and 1700 men strong) could be made available.

I am not sure what portion of the troops in North Carolina are merely troops that were temporally detached from Lee, but they would limit the numbers that could be gained as "reinforcements above and beyond".

So I am unsure what would be the most reasonable way, assuming logistics could at least temporally support the gathering of the host Lee desired (Lee knew as well as anyone how well that would work, and it appears he believes he could do that if he could gather the soldiers and generals to command to begin with), to draw from these relatively idle departments.

http://www.gamersarchive.net/theGamers/archive/rss.htm
The This Hallowed Ground game offers one form, as a variant, but I am uncertain if it is the best (either best possible or merely best available). There are also a few scenarios for different games which also involve "What if Lee was reinforced heavily", with similar organization.

So, for those who feel that it could be done, logistics in Virginia permiting, what could be done to reinforce Lee to the fullest extent the Confederacy could support?

Historically, he had roughly 75,000 men.
During the Seven Days, it appears the Confederacy was able to reach, counting all units at all ready to fight, almost if not just over 100,000. This seems unlikely to be duplicated after a year of war has worn down both railroads and farming, but it might not be impossible to reach around ninety thousand.

Thoughts? Suggestions? Drawbacks to be considered?

[trice]

Originally Posted by Elennsar

I am working on an alternate history speculation involving Lee's second "invasion" of the North, with two unhistorical factors.

1) Stonewall Jackson survives Chancellorsville and is healthy and fit for command. Whether or not he'd do better than Ewell by any great degree, who knows. That comes later on in the sorting out of probable from the possible. However, it means that he is in charge of 2nd Corps, so finding a qualified successor is not necessary.

In this situation, is the ANV still split into two Corps under Jackson and Longstreet? Or is it now three Corps, and who commands the new one?

Lee had implied he was against adding a third corps while Jackson was alive -- and implied he thought a corps of 40,000+ was too big for one man after Jackson died. You can go either way on this one. Three corps makes Lee's June plan work smoother.

Originally Posted by Elennsar

2) Lee succeeds (somehow) in convincing Davis to concentrate a large portion of the Confederacy's forces not currently attached to his or Bragg's army (Reference to show that this is not without at least the possibility of happening historically: http://ehistory.osu.edu/osu/sources/...ntent=040/0782 )

Lee almost had his 2 divisions of cavalry (he ended up with 7 for the Gettysburg operation). But he kept them as a single division under Stuart, probably for a lack of time to organize them and because of the politics of command. He *might* have been able to come up with a little more, maybe as much as a brigade, but I doubt they'd have qualified as "good".

If you want to pursue this, you should look into the "Old Army" game being played with A. P. Hill down in NC. Hill managed to hold onto what Lee considered "his" troops and substitute less experienced troops in several instances, both infantry and cavalry. He also managed to set it up so that Lee/Stuart ended up stuck with Robertson again (they got rid of him in 1862 after 2nd Manassas and before Antietam.)

Originally Posted by Elennsar

However, even if Lee persauded Davis that the best way to reinforce the Army of Northern Virginia involves "...bringing troops from the departments of South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. No more can be needed there this summer than enough to maintain the water batteries. Nor do I think that more will be required at Wilmington than are sufficient for this purpose.", that would, assuming the two departments were stripped bare, which seems grossly improbable, produce something around two divisions (on a guess, as I don't have the figures for brigade strength in front of me, close to 15-20 thousand men)

As part of his plan, Lee appears to have wanted Beauregard placed in command of 10-20,000 men (from the Richmond garrison forces and wherever else they could be gathered) somewhere close to Washington in Virginia. If it could be managed, it would be great for Lee's plan. Obviously, it wasn't.

Originally Posted by Elennsar

There are also the brigades of Samuel Jones in SW Virginia, and those of Buckner in East Tennessee. It is possible though not necessarily likely that Churchill's brigade (captured at Arkansas Post and exchanged, historically sent to Bragg and 1700 men strong) could be made available.

Given the politics and the people in positions of authority, doesn't seem likely. Drop a Napoleon into the situation at the top and I'd bet it got done. Jeff Davis, no.

Originally Posted by Elennsar

I am not sure what portion of the troops in North Carolina are merely troops that were temporally detached from Lee, but they would limit the numbers that could be gained as "reinforcements above and beyond".

Probably better to get the good troops and avoid some of the less experienced ones Lee ended up with. Also probably better to avoid some of the commanders Lee got, like Robertson and Jeff Davis' nephew. You might get a brigade more out of NC; maybe not.

Originally Posted by Elennsar

So I am unsure what would be the most reasonable way, assuming logistics could at least temporally support the gathering of the host Lee desired (Lee knew as well as anyone how well that would work, and it appears he believes he could do that if he could gather the soldiers and generals to command to begin with), to draw from these relatively idle departments.

Probably why he wrote to Davis about putting Beauregard with 10-20,000 in northern VA to threaten/pressure/feint at Washington. It might have caused a detachment from the AoP, or a call for troops from Norfolk to Washington. Given him a base to retreat upon or a force to reinforce success.

Tim

[5fish]

[

quote=Elennsar;94009]I am working on an alternate history speculation involving Lee's second "invasion" of the North, with two unhistorical factors.

1) Stonewall Jackson survives Chancellorsville and is healthy and fit for command. Whether or not he'd do better than Ewell by any great degree, who knows. That comes later on in the sorting out of probable from the possible. However, it means that he is in charge of 2nd Corps, so finding a qualified successor is not necessary.

2) Lee succeeds (somehow) in convincing Davis to concentrate a large portion of the Confederacy's forces not currently attached to his or Bragg's army (Reference to show that this is not without at least the possibility of happening historically: http://ehistory.osu.edu/osu/sources/...ntent=040/0782 )

If you check the historiacl record Lee did not enter PA. at the full strength he wanted. Pres. Davis keep two veteran bridges of Longstreet in NC. protecting against nothing and Gen. Pickett who how the largest brigade in the AoNV was force to keep part of around Richmond. If you bring these figures in it would add a division to Lee's army.

However, even if Lee persauded Davis that the best way to reinforce the Army of Northern Virginia involves "...bringing troops from the departments of South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. No more can be needed there this summer than enough to maintain the water batteries. Nor do I think that more will be required at Wilmington than are sufficient for this purpose.", that would, assuming the two departments were stripped bare, which seems grossly improbable, produce something around two divisions (on a guess, as I don't have the figures for brigade strength in front of me, close to 15-20 thousand men)

There are also the brigades of Samuel Jones in SW Virginia, and those of Buckner in East Tennessee. It is possible though not necessarily likely that Churchill's brigade (captured at Arkansas Post and exchanged, historically sent to Bragg and 1700 men strong) could be made available.

I am not sure what portion of the troops in North Carolina are merely troops that were temporally detached from Lee, but they would limit the numbers that could be gained as "reinforcements above and beyond".

So I am unsure what would be the most reasonable way, assuming logistics could at least temporally support the gathering of the host Lee desired (Lee knew as well as anyone how well that would work, and it appears he believes he could do that if he could gather the soldiers and generals to command to begin with), to draw from these relatively idle departments.

Again if you read Lee's original plan to invade the North, he wanted to bring Gen. Beauregard to Central VA. along with units in NC, SC., FL., and GA. and form and army of around 30,000 men. As history tells us Pres. Davis first agree then back stab Gen. Lee's plan.

Gen. Lee wanted Gen. Beauregard to march toward Central Ohio and threat and invade that part of the union. In Lee's original plan, he wanted to bring the war to the North for a summer.

Lee plan would not have effected the coastal defense for the Pres. Davis was using troops to protect inland rail lines that were not directly threaten.

I hope me few notes will help you on you desire quest..

http://www.gamersarchive.net/theGamers/archive/rss.htm
The This Hallowed Ground game offers one form, as a variant, but I am uncertain if it is the best (either best possible or merely best available). There are also a few scenarios for different games which also involve "What if Lee was reinforced heavily", with similar organization.

So, for those who feel that it could be done, logistics in Virginia permiting, what could be done to reinforce Lee to the fullest extent the Confederacy could support?

Historically, he had roughly 75,000 men.
During the Seven Days, it appears the Confederacy was able to reach, counting all units at all ready to fight, almost if not just over 100,000. This seems unlikely to be duplicated after a year of war has worn down both railroads and farming, but it might not be impossible to reach around ninety thousand.

Thoughts? Suggestions? Drawbacks to be considered?

[/quote]


I would have to think about he drawbacks....

[Elennsar]

Trice (Tim? Which do I use?): Three corps, with A.P. Hill's third divison being Ransom's two brigades (instead of Pettigrew and Davis) + I'm not sure. (Lee's historical plan seems to be Ransom, Cooke, Pettigrew for that division.)

I could assemble, if I wanted to take all the available men from the area between the Virginia border and Florida, perhaps two additional brigades, as well as having Robertson's present at full strength. None would have much experience, but there's enough manpower available (as in, present).

Yeah. Davis would probably permit/support/order part of it, but certainly not the total concentration that could be done. (I haven't actually done the math, but if every "what if it was sent to Lee" soldier was sent his way, its closer to 50 than 30, but that would never, ever happen.)

Jones at least is loosely within Lee's jurisdiction, and I could see a brigade, maaaaaybe two being sent from Buckner, along with some artillery. Beyond that? Not that I can see.

Churchill's brigade is a stronger possibility, as historically it seems that it was "Originally the plan was to send to to Johnston, then it was sent to Bragg." so its not part of the forces "commited" anywhere.

I believe there were two brigades of infantry, other than Lee's own held on greedily by D.H. Hill and those sent up historically, but that would leave it all but bare.

So my theory is that, not counting Daniel and Pettigrew, there's only one to spare, more or less. Two if Davis is swapped for someone else. But sending both seems excessive.

Still, that means that Lee gains, in addition to his four "lost" being returned, another four or five, relatively easily (Pettigrew, Daniel, Davis?, Evans, Churchill)

Jones has four, though effectively only two are available...and from there is why I'm asking for help. I think a fourth corps/army in reserve/of feinting could be assembled, if the will was there, but how to assemble it without going too far needs to be hammered out.

5fish: Seems interesting. I wonder what would have happened if Beauregard had invaded in some form along with Morgan. That would cause chaos.

Its not the what if I'm interested in pursuing in the campaign I am puzzling out, but it would be one worth studying.

[5fish]

Originally Posted by Elennsar

Trice (Tim? Which do I use?): Three corps, with A.P. Hill's third divison being Ransom's two brigades (instead of Pettigrew and Davis) + I'm not sure. (Lee's historical plan seems to be Ransom, Cooke, Pettigrew for that division.)

I could assemble, if I wanted to take all the available men from the area between the Virginia border and Florida, perhaps two additional brigades, as well as having Robertson's present at full strength. None would have much experience, but there's enough manpower available (as in, present).

Yeah. Davis would probably permit/support/order part of it, but certainly not the total concentration that could be done. (I haven't actually done the math, but if every "what if it was sent to Lee" soldier was sent his way, its closer to 50 than 30, but that would never, ever happen.)

Jones at least is loosely within Lee's jurisdiction, and I could see a brigade, maaaaaybe two being sent from Buckner, along with some artillery. Beyond that? Not that I can see.

Churchill's brigade is a stronger possibility, as historically it seems that it was "Originally the plan was to send to to Johnston, then it was sent to Bragg." so its not part of the forces "commited" anywhere.

I believe there were two brigades of infantry, other than Lee's own held on greedily by D.H. Hill and those sent up historically, but that would leave it all but bare.

So my theory is that, not counting Daniel and Pettigrew, there's only one to spare, more or less. Two if Davis is swapped for someone else. But sending both seems excessive.

Still, that means that Lee gains, in addition to his four "lost" being returned, another four or five, relatively easily (Pettigrew, Daniel, Davis?, Evans, Churchill)

Jones has four, though effectively only two are available...and from there is why I'm asking for help. I think a fourth corps/army in reserve/of feinting could be assembled, if the will was there, but how to assemble it without going too far needs to be hammered out.

5fish: Seems interesting. I wonder what would have happened if Beauregard had invaded in some form along with Morgan. That would cause chaos.

Its not the what if I'm interested in pursuing in the campaign I am puzzling out, but it would be one worth studying.

Need remember there was no uniform size for regiment, brigades or Division within the Confederate army just general sizes. Pickett had to leave at least two brigades size force behind to cover Richmond.

D. H. Hill had two of Longstreet's veteran brigades in N.C..

Note of Interest you are trying to find more men for Lee's army going into PA. All Lee wanted was those two brigades from NC. and Pickett to be at full strength when he began his move north..

Note: Lee thought the Confederacy had at least 30,000 extra men to spare for he wanted to create another army in VA. with Beauregard in command. Which means instead of using them as Lee wanted, you should be able to redirect those 30,000 men into your model.

Where Lee came up with that figure of 30,000 men, I do not know but you should be able to find them. It's kind of hard to hide 30,000 men...


Good luck on you endeavor...

[timewalker]

Remember that Hooker's apparent plan was to either attack Richmond at the same time Lee invaded the North or to march over to Harpers' Ferry and cut off the Confederate supplies and line of retreat. If Lee stripped practically everything to go North, that becomes a more attractive option; although you would still have Lincoln and Stanton pressing for a firm defense of Washington.

If Lee moves North with a much larger army, what would that do to the strategic situation elsewhere, such as in Northern Virginia?

[Elennsar]

Richmond has a "decent" garrison if its not under serious threat (Wise's brigade of perhaps two thousand infantry, some cavalry probably totalling under a thousand men, fifteen batteries of light artillery, and the heavy artillery...which does not compare unfavorably, on the surface, to what was left in Washington, given the amount of manpower available to both sides.)

I believe one could find thirty thousand men for Lee without compromising anywhere to critical levels, but it would require considerable effort.

Say...

10,000: D.H. Hill
8,000: Beauregard
3000: (Samuel) Jones
4,000: Buckner
9,000: Breckinridge and Churchill (the former historically sent to Johnston)
Total: 34,000.

My aim is to find something closer to 25,000, as that seems easier to pry out of the various areas. (No one, with the possible exception of Samuel Jones, wanted to send Lee anything.)

As I recall, and I believe this counts Ransom's two brigades (roughly five thousand men) but not Corse or Jenkins (thirty-five hundred total), there were...all totalled...about sixteen thousand in Hill's department and the same in Beauregard's.

I do not know if this counts heavy artillerists, I am pretty sure it counts all three branches otherwise.

Regarding Hooker..

Lincoln wanted Hooker to make "Lee's army, not Richmond, your objective."
Even with the forces Lee was forced to leave behind, an eighty five thousand man drive on Richmond's defenders would be overwhelming, so if Hooker was allowed to go towards Richmond, Lee would have to do something about that.

What's more problematic...

4th and 7th Corps. They're in a position to, if handled with a certain amount of energy and aggressiveness, threaten Richmond.
There's (roughly) perhaps thirty thousand men there. Would Lincoln, if feeling that the Army of Northern Virginia was a serious menace that had to be stopped, draw them towards Washington and/or the Army of the Potomac, or prod them to threaten Richmond?

I would venture to say that if Lee invaded with a "full effort" army (95 thousand, perhaps), Lincoln would pull them to reinforce Washington and/or the Army of the Potomac.

One could argue the other way, but "Washington is threatened!" seems to produce "pull troops in its direction" movements, not without reason.

An important question: Johnston historically made little effective use of the troops sent to him. How improbable would sending Breckinridge's division to Lee instead be if Davis knew and acknowledged that (and thusly declined to send troops that would do nothing)?

Breckinridge's or one of Bragg's others...Cleburne's, perhaps.

Davis felt taking troops from Bragg was worth the risk if something More Important (Vicksburg historically) would benefit. So that aspect of the what if seems to be on solid ground.

[OpnDownfall]

Two questions How long will this concentration take to accomplish, under the best of circumstances And could such a concentration be hidden from Union Intelligence?
No matter how much the Confederates can reinforce their armies, the North can reinforce more and faster.
So speed and deception are vital prerequisites for such a 'Whatif'.
The historical evidence suggests that it might not be doable, especially against Meade.

[trice]

Originally Posted by Elennsar

Richmond has a "decent" garrison if its not under serious threat (Wise's brigade of perhaps two thousand infantry, some cavalry probably totalling under a thousand men, fifteen batteries of light artillery, and the heavy artillery...which does not compare unfavorably, on the surface, to what was left in Washington, given the amount of manpower available to both sides.)

If Lee is far away and any serious push in strength is made against this force, the city will fall.

Originally Posted by Elennsar

I believe one could find thirty thousand men for Lee without compromising anywhere to critical levels, but it would require considerable effort.

Say...

10,000: D.H. Hill
8,000: Beauregard
3000: (Samuel) Jones
4,000: Buckner
9,000: Breckinridge and Churchill (the former historically sent to Johnston)
Total: 34,000.

That's pretty aggressive. Lee was actually looking for 4 brigades he regarded as on loan from his ANV: Ransom, Cooke, Corse, Jenkins. He got two: Davis and Pettigrew. While Pettigrew was regarded as a good commander, Joseph Davis had no experience. Pettigrew's men were green; Davis' men at least had seen some combat. But this basically means Lee got 2 brigades he didn't want instead of four veteran brigades he did want. Lee also got Daniels' Brigade in a swap for Colquitt's Chancellorsville-tested men (Colquitt was regarded as incompetent, but Daniels' men were green).

So really Lee got 3 brigades out of NC -- but he was looking for 5. When you say you want 10,000 from Hill, do you mean you're looking for 10,000 more, above and beyond the 3 Lee did get? Or do you mean 10,000 less the three brigades Lee did get? Because if what you really mean is you want Hill to give up 7 or 8 brigades, you are not likely to make that happen.

The funny thing about all the maneuvering is that Hill was in Lee's chain of command. Lee technically could just tell him to send the troops (if we forget the politics, anyway).

As to the reinforcements from other places, Beauregard had sent troops to Vicksburg already. If you're talking about diverting the troops that Johnston did receive, there is simply no reason for the garrisons at Port Hudson and Vicksburg to hold out.

Tim

[Elennsar]

Even if the Union could do "more and faster", here's some rough figures on what could be done.

1) 20-30 thousand in Virginia, perhaps half or two thirds that in West Virginia/Maryland/DC.
2) Perhaps fifteen to twenty thousand in the Carolinas, on a guess. Maybe less.
3) Up to perhaps fifteen from Rosencrans.

vs. the previously stated figures on what the Confederacy could sent Lee if pushing vigously.

The amount of manpower available for either side that isn't already in the AoNVA or AotP is not that vast.

Tim: Yes, but that would be just as true against the historical force (with Pickett's two detached brigades and the troops in North Carolina able to be called up in a hurry) as vs. the more "bare bones".

Lee apparently had at least the inkling of an idea (see the ehistory link) for pulling what he could out of the area between North Carolina and Florida, not sure far that actually went, but its a foundation worth pondering from.

The ten thousand from Hill is not counting the brigades he recieved historically (Daniel, Pettigrew, Davis) or Ransom's two.

Hill, assuming every infantry unit organized and in Confederate service, could send Lee five brigades (Martin, Clingman, Daniel, Davis, Pettigrew). Seven if one counts Ransom and Cooke.

I would say it would be possible to grab two, maybe three, of the five. After that, its getting into "There's no way this would actually be done, even if its possible to find more."

Vicksburg: Evans was sent on the 15th, along with the 47th Georgia. A week or so latter, an additional battery (making two from Beauregard) was sent. This does not count Gist's and Walker's brigades and the two batteries with them sent on the 3rd of the month.

Breckinridge meanwhile was sent somewhere either at the tail end of May or the begining of June.

I don't see any reason for sending troops to Johnston after he's abandoned Jackson and declared pretty clearly (admitedly, I say this with hindsight, but it should not have been hard to tell) that he's not going to make an all out effort to save Vicksburg. This would permit sending the last two batteries and the roughly 2500 infantry (Evans's brigade and the Georgians) to Lee or keeping them with Beauregard, as well as sending a division from Bragg to Lee.

Vicksburg and Port Hudson have something around thirty thousand plus garrisoned, which is enough to hold against assault. Not enough to win in the field, but that option would require better leadership as well...so I really don't see the point of sending troops after about the 13th ("I am too late." said Johnston)

It is odd that Lee didn't just order (and get Davis backing him as such) the men he wanted from Hill. Foster (Federal NC commander) warned Halleck that by July 1st his department would have no more than 5,000 effectives. Now, Lee and all are hardly likely to know this...but his command being a Major Threat in the eyes of D.H. Hill and Vance is a sign of bad intelligence.

I've no idea if the swap of Daniel for Colquitt is a good one or not...certainly his performance at Chancellorsville left something to be desired, but I'm uncertain of how much so.

As to his brigade being depleted (The polite reason given)...according to Coddington (using the Official Records as a reference), his brigade is about eighteen hundred men at the end of May. Maybe only thirteen hundred immediately after Chancellorsville (1700 - 400 odd casualties included captured), which is not much for five regiments, but at this point in the war, not necessarily "unusually weak". Archer's brigade (four regiments and a battalion) is not quite twelve hundred men as of Gettysburg, after all.

So, Pettigrew and Daniel from NC (plus their batteries, as historical), Evans and a battery from Beauregard, Lee's detached four, maaaybe Churchill (his men were in Virginia due to having been just exchanged when the discussions on what to do would start, so they could be sent to Lee. Not sure they would be, but they're not busy elsewhere, unlike the other brigades that would be moved.)...and then we hit the point of "how many is too many?"

If Colquitt is sent to Hill in exchange for Daniel, then add another brigade.

I don't think Lee would have written his letter about how no more troops would be needed for Beauregard or Wilmington than those "needed to man the water batteries" unless he felt it would be possible to recieve most of the men stationed there. Lee, after all, unlike certain other commanders who shall not be named, generally understood what Davis wanted, which would include what Davis would insist on in regards to how Confederate strength would be concentrated or dispersed.

So I'm just not sure. If I was Davis, I would concentrate highly (though not the full thirty four thousand or so possible). But Davis, even if willing to support Lee, is highly unlikely to be willing to send the full strength of the Confederacy's Eastern Theater forces to Lee with both the Carolinas and Richmond at least in some potential peril. I do believe it is possible to examine what could have been done if he had been more willing than historical and gather a fair sized force, but it would not be without risk or without consequences.

For those who have looked at the pdf for This Hallowed Ground: Could such a force as the one portrayed as the corps of D.H. Hill be assembled without undue peril, speaking with the benefit of hindsight? I know that the historical leaders would not be able to benefit from it, but it would be good to know if that would be overly daring even with certain knowledge of how (in)active the Federals were.

A major victory (one equivalant to say, Second Bull Run) in Pennsylvania or Maryland at the cost of the better part of the Carolinas falling to the Union would be a poor exchange unless the Federal forces were ordered to Washington in a "protect the capital at all costs" move after the Union defeat, and even then would be hard to justify (for the Confederacy).