Lee's invasion is successful. What next?

[Ter61]

Lee destroys Meade's army at Gettysburg and captures Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg, and Philidelphia? In spite of Lee's success, Lincoln decides to fight on. What would Lee have done next? Would he have invaded New York or would he have prepared to face Grant and other Union forces coming in from the west? What would Grant have done? Would he have moved his forces to face Lee or would he have tried to end the invasion by moving into Virginia to threaten Richmond and force Lee to come and attack him?

[OpnDownfall]

WOW!!! You dealt Lee a lot of aces. AoP destroyed, Washington D.C., Baltimore, Harrisburg And Philiadelphia captured. If he could do all that I do not see why he couldn't take New York City.
However, you left the Union the last Ace, Lincoln and I would still bet on him to Rally the North to drive out the invading hordes of seditious southern slavers.
Such a disaster would either despond the North or rally a white hot will to drive out the invaders.
So, If, as I conjecture, the invasion sparks general resistence, then Lincoln will have volunteers streaming in, Grant will be hurried North with part of all of his Army, meanwhile Lincoln's Call to Arms to Save the Union from the slavocracy will have loosed the Norths other hand that had been tied behind it's back and an all out war of national liberation would be ignited that would burn all the way to the Gulf.

[timewalker]

Wow, indeed. Definitely alien space bat territory.

I tried to craft a response, but if Lee destroyed the Army of the Potomac and captured each of Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg and Philadelphia then there is no real response possible. What would be left but to throw in the towel?

[Baggage Handler #2]

Space bats, c'mon, I think what happens next is that B-17's based out of Cleveland start pounding Richmond.

Say Lee has 40,000 effectives (too high, but let's just say) after Gettysburg. How many does he lose taking Baltimore, Philly, and Washington, maybe 6000 each? That leaves a garrison of 2000 for each of those cities to control a hostile population. With everyone else foraging like there's no tomorrow.

I'm no expert, but the consequences of a victory by Lee at Gettysburg are pretty similar to the consequences of a defeat. Either way he abandons PA absent a chunk of his army. The best he can realistically hope for is to give Virginia a good harvest in 1863.

[cw1865]

Army of the Potomac is not going to get destroyed, but the remnants are still going to stream back to DC.

In my opinion Lee's 'victory' at Gettysburg would result in a political victory.

You just can't do Fredericksburg, Chancellorsville and a negative Gettysburg and expect to continue....

[whitworth]

There is no next. Lee cannot capture Philadelphia. Lee cannot capture Washington. Lee did not destroy the Army of the Potomac at Gettysburg. Lee was forced to attack defensive positions and used up nearly all his ammunition.

Lee had ammunition for one good battle. And the Army of the Potomac boxed the ANV into a narrow place at Adams County. They grabbed ahold and didn't let loose until Lee started his retreat to Virginia.
Lee did not have enough ammunition to attack either Philadelphia or Washington, when he left Virginia.
In a short time, while in Pennsylvania, Lee lost half his cavalry horses and half his artillery horses.

I'm sure the Northern generals knew the downside of the Army of Northern Virginia. Their spies would have counted supply wagons, for forage and ammunition as the Confederates moved into and though the Chambersburg area.

[diddyriddick]

"I'm no expert, but the consequences of a victory by Lee at Gettysburg are pretty similar to the consequences of a defeat."

Political considerations aside, I'm with Handler on this one. Even if Lee wins at Gettysburg, he's not going to destroy the AoP. And his resources are so depleted that he can not possibly prosecute further offensive action.

It may have given some ammo to the Copperheads, though.

[cw1865]

We have to remember that a Confederate victory at Gettysburg would yield Union ordinance.

[diddyriddick]

I'm not so sure, CW. Guns, perhaps, but Lee had plenty of those. How much ammunition would he have yielded? I am no artillery expert, but it seems to me that the ammo in the caissons and limbers would have been pretty much expended in the type of battle envisioned here.

[Ter61]

It was Lee that thought all this was possible. He said after the war that if he could have had Stonewall Jackson at Gettysburg that he would have won a great victory. He said that a victory there would have allowed him to capture Washington, Annapolis, Baltimore, Harrisburg, and Philidelphia, and that would have established the independence of the Confederacy. I'm like the rest of you, I don't really believe he could have done all of that. However, it would be interesting to see what would have happened if he could have accomplished all of that. No matter how much Lee could have done, I don't believe that Lincoln would have ever thrown in the towel.