Civil War History - "What if..." DiscussionsWhat if they had attacked instead of digging in...? What if he was in charge of the army instead...? Did you ever have a "What if..." question, and you weren't sure where to post it? Here's the place to ask these speculative questions!
Lets go back to July 1863, Lee has just won the Battle of Gettysburg and Meade has retreat to his fall back position at Pipe Creek.
What would Lee do next? He has exhausted his army for victory but he did not achieve his goal of destroying the AoP only forcing it to retreat with heavy loses.
The AoP is still between him and Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia and still has some fight left in it while lee's army is hurting and far from home.
What are Lee's options?
Lee could follow the AoP and bring on another Battle.
Lee could head toward Harrisburg, PA.
Lee could retire back to VA.
If Lee had won at Gettysburg what would he have achieved and what would he have done next?
__________________
"States Rights are about States Wrongs" - Jesse Jackson
Unless he'd picked up ammo from Meade's defeated army, he'd have to go back to Virginia. And what is Meade doing while Lee is doing what he is going to do next?
ole
__________________ I never knew a man who wished to be himself a slave. Consider if you know any good thing that no man desires for himself. A. Lincoln
Unless he'd picked up ammo from Meade's defeated army, he'd have to go back to Virginia. And what is Meade doing while Lee is doing what he is going to do next?
ole
Meade is consolidating his army at Pipe's Creek most likely entrenching expecting Lee to follow up on his victory.
If he retires back to VA. then what was truly achieve in invading the North?
I am seeing a Pyrrhic victory if Lee had won at Gettysburg.
__________________
"States Rights are about States Wrongs" - Jesse Jackson
Gotta agree with ole. Unless he won on day one or two, he was out of ammo and in no condition to continue the fight. I don't think getting a load of ammo sent up from Virginia was realistic. If he moved on to Harrisburg, he runs the risk of Meade (who would still have the larger army) cutting his supply line and then he's in big, big, touble. If Meade was in the Pipe Creek Line, moving to Washington or Baltimore is out, too. No way to get there.
The Gettysburg Campaign was a non-starter from the get-go. Unless he completely destroyed the AoP he wins a phyrric victory, at best. Unless his resounding victory in the North crushes the Union morale enough to force them to sue for peace, which I don't see happening.
__________________ "There must be more historians of the Civil War than there were generals figthing in it... Of the two groups, the historians are the more belligerent." David Donald, Lincoln Reconsidered (1961)
Lee is picking every ear of corn, every pod of peas, using confederate cash to buy every cow, pig and jar of apple butter he can. Even if he could bluff his army around and keep Mead from doing anything Lee has saved Va's fields and population from a few months of the ravages of war. Plus at the same time the anti war folks in the north would be getting stirred up.
The 'What If...' question is too vague, the when, where and how of the battle is important. A hard fought, dearly won victory, would result in different decisions than a relatively easy and quick success.
Howeve, the Historical record shows that Lee is a confident and aggressive army commander and Meade, a competent, though too cautious, commanding general.
Barring extraordinary events not evident from what we know of the July Days at Gettysburg.
We can assume, that, if defeated, Meade would, if possible, retreat to his earlier Pipe Creek Position (originally chosen as an excellent defensive position and giving good coverage to Washington D.C. and Baltimore)
Although Lee would want to aggaressively press his advantage, the cavalry (depending on when and in what condition it is available) would find it's hands full fighting off the attentions of the AoP recently reconstituted and newly aggressive cavalry corps. So IMO the pursuit would likely be slow even if Lee ordered otherwise.
So, if Meade reaches and secures his Pipe Creek Lines, it would be difficult to drive him off or tempt him to attack. The initiative would remain firmly in Lee's hands.
Strategically, due to supply difficulties, the inadequacies of transport, loss of his Pontoon Train, ammunition shortage, especially in the artillery, etc., Lee. probably, cannot, realistically, look North to the Susquehanna and Harrisburg. Retreating back the way he came would not look well after achieving another significant victory.
Even if the above difficulties did not exist (or ignored by Lee) it is very unlikely that Lee would Leave the AoP in his rear, as he moves North.
Lee would, IMO, follow up his victory by advancing as soon as possible to Meade's Pipe Creek position. Meade's original plan would, of course, have to be revamped. The original position was susceptible to being flanked, especially to the West, from where Lee would be advancing (from the North-West actually).
Lee attacking Meade at Pipe Creek, would depend upon the quality and accuracy of the intelligence that Stuarts cavalry could provide him as he approached the entrenched AoP. As I have stated before, it is my belief, that Stuart would have his hands full justcovering the advance of the ANV from the active and still aggressive Union Cavalry Brigades and Divisions. Lee cannot wait too long; as we know, in fact, there was heavy rains in Early July and the Potomac was impassible, to Lee without his pontoon trains, with that in mind as he approached Meade's army, being trapped North of the River, would IMO loon large in Lee mind.
So without some luck or a major mistake on Meade's part I see Lee slipping on south and encamping just south of the Potomac and if Meade refuses to attack him there, which is almost a given, he would eventually pull back further south. possibly to the Rappahannock.
The war goes on, same tune, different page.
Ever read the books by whats his face?? Newt Gingrich? and some other guy. The first one centers around exactly this scenario. Lee pushing Meade back to Pipe Creek. Then the other 2 books continue the war. In the What ifs they had, Lee ends up winning Gettysburg, but at a higher cost to manpower, and the defeat of the Confederate army comes even quicker. If I wasn't so tired right now I could remember the name of the books. I'm pretty sure one of them was called "Grant Comes East" ... something like that.I thought o some of the conclusion s were a bit inconsistent with how the generals would act, but all in all it was a pretty good read. AoP gets decimated and AoT comes to the rescue with Grant. Check em out!
__________________
"In mortal combat, a man may and will become so infuriated by the din and dangers of a bloody fight that his heart will turn to stone and his every de sire [be] for blood."
John Hadley, 7th Indiana after the battle at Port Republic
The 'What If...' question is too vague, the when, where and how of the battle is important. A hard fought, dearly won victory, would result in different decisions than a relatively easy and quick success.
Lets amend the question then, Lee wins the Battle of Gettysburg on day two. Longstreet attacks in the early to mid morning hours and turns Meade's left flank while Ewell follows up with an assault on Meade's right taking Culp's hill but his forces are exhausted and Meade is able to retreat back to Pipe's Creek.
At the end of day Two, Meade's Army is in full retreat and Lee has exhausted the fight in both Ewell's and Longstreet's Corp. leaving Hill's Corp. still recovering from day One.
Meade from day three on ward is consolidating his army and preparing to engage Lee at Pipe's Creek.
Lee starting from day Three with two exhaust corps and one corp recovering. He has Pickett's Div. is still fresh but Stuart cavalry has arrived but is exhausted.
Now, What has Lee achieved and what would he have done next?
__________________
"States Rights are about States Wrongs" - Jesse Jackson
OK, the hard wond won victory scenario. My scenario in post #6 was based on the Hard fought battle, supposition.
One fly in my ointment thought. In Meade's original Pipe Creek plan, I believe he had O.O. Howard on the extreme Left Flank of the Union Line, (the direction that Lee would necessarily approach from Gettysburg, If Meade had waited at Pipe Creek and, instead, called Reynolds and Buford back)
I know it is unlikely that after the maneuverings and movements during the battle at Gettysburg (and postulated Union retreat) that Howard and his Corps would end up on an exposed flank of the Army. But if I were Meade I would want to knew where Howard was, at all times. After all, in fact, Howard was indeed flanked and crushed at Gettysburg as he was at Chancellorsville.
IF General Lee did win at Gettysburg, I believe he would continue on with his original play to swing East towards Washington, DC as was the course in the first place.
Securing the railroad 'if' he had won, would load the trains with his army, supplies and headed East gaining speed over those troops of the Union who still had to move on foot.
I would believe that General W.S. Hancock would take 2nd Corps and do the best he could with his injuries and get to Washington (DC) City as soon as possible, as well as other surviving Corps.
One armed General O. O. Howard would probably be put into the work of slowing the Confederate Army's advance on Washington --Union's habitual retreat is Howard's reputation --so retreat would be in the same direction as Lee. Maybe he would do what he needed to do in the first place.
General Early's troops which went on to attack Washington, would be in larger numbers--as well as perhaps, not on his own as to allow his men to get 'liquored up' and so drunk they could make a proper attack as planned, not giving the entire day for Union forces to bolster Fort Stevens with the 'Home Guard' and those who were recooperating.
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