What if Lee had won at Chancellorsville? The quality of the Union victory would determine how fast the war ended (in the East, at least).
IMO it would hinge on two factors, did victory come before or after Hooker's seeming loss of confidence and how much was Hookers 'loss of nerve' acctually merely being disoriented by the concussion of the near miss he experienced during the battle? Victory covers a multitude of sins. Up until Chancellorsville, there seemed to be no overt signs of Hooker's lacking any confidence in himself, except being boasful and a certain liking for purple prose. A common enough attribute of most military commanders of that time.
Although surprised at first, the victory would probably have fd Hookers Ego and he would most likely have pressed his advantage.
Hooker had reconstituted the Federal Cavalry into a real fighting force and although still not a complete match for Stuart, Hooker was trying to get his Senior Cavalry commanders to be more aggressive and was continually sening them out to fight. before and after Chancellorsvill in real life. So we can assume with victory Hooker would be pushing his cavary to intercept and/or not to let the retreating ANV stop and regroup until well past Fredericksburg. I think Hooker would still be confident to pursue Lee until Lee could build up a sufficiently impressive defensive position to cause him to pause It is entirely possible that both armies could have ended up at Petersburg a year earlies with the war in the East over by the middle of 1864.
As in real life, there would probably be no saving Vicksburg, whether Lee won or lost at Chancellorsville.
Davis would have to make up his mind to evacuate Richmond or try to withstand a siege, I am sthinking that the cool headed Political leader would induce him to miove the capital further south; Atlanta or Savannah, I would guess.
The reinforcements being laboriously raised for Bragg, would have to be diverted to Lee arouind Richmond, Meaning Bragg with no chance for significant resupply or reinforcement would not try to save Tn, but try to save Ga. instead.
During this time, Grant carries Vicksburg, and can either move to reinforce Roscrans OR follow Grants original plan of moving his army against Atlanta and Braggs rear. Either way the Western War would probably be nearing it's end by the beginning of 1864. |