What if the Confederacy had won the War?

[olerebel]

Mobile- when in Booksamillion or a local library, look up"Shadow of the Sentinel". It gives an interesting point of view. Today, in Brazil, there is still a community that flies the Confederate battle flag. (If any of the residents pass through my neighborhood they'll feel at home.)

[matthew mckeon]

olerebel,
When you say "servants" do you mean the servants who worked without being paid? The servants who could be sold to another master? The servants who could, and often were, flogged at the master's whim? Who were forbidden to learn to read? Who lacked political rights? Whose children and whose children's children were doomed to be, (what was your term?) "servants?" Or do you mean servants like Jeeves the butler?

As far as preparing slaves to be free and productive members of society, whatever Jefferson Davis was trying to accomplish, I don't believe it was emancipation. In fact, since American slavery lasted over 200 years without any improvement in the legal social or political status of the enslaved, I don't see that slavery was leading to anything, for the enslaved, except more slavery. Once the people were no longer enslaved, progress was possible.

[matthew mckeon]

I think a key question is, if the CSA survived to modern times, how long would slavery have lasted? Once slavery ended, how long would the racist beliefs that justified it have lasted? What political and legal form would those beliefs have taken? What would compel or persuade a modern CSA government to establish legal and political equality for its black citizens?

[MobileBoy]

Matthew,
Those questions you have I have as well.If it wasn't for civil rights concerns I would probably think that Northern victory in the war ruined everything.I don't think that slavery would have lasted into the 20th century at least not in its present form.By limiting other job opportunities or the traps of sharecropping etch... slavery wasn't necessary.Many poeple think that Reconstruction poisoned race relations in the South.That couldn't help but I don't think it alone was to blame.However you must remember that most of the Northern population was white supremacist in racial views as well in 1860.94 percent of blacks living in the North had no right to vote.Several Northern states passed legislation preventing black migration.The point is if they could change their views so could Southerners.Blacks actually got the right to vote in the South before the North but of course that was due not to enlightenment but to Reconstruction.

Olerebel,
Thanks for the suggestion.I have picked up that book several times but I haven't bought it yet.It looked interesting so I'll have to take it home next time.Welcome aboard.Join evryone at the secession and politics section.Thats whwer you'll find the real discussing going on.

[milhistbuff1]

MobileBoy,

One question that needs to be answered when looking at the CSA victory is, would things have gotten desparate enough in the fight in order to arm slaves in exchange for freedom as General Cleburne urged. Without an answer to that, its impossible to gauge what would have happened post war. Do you think it would gotten to the point where the CSA would arm its slaves and win the war.
respectfully,
Matt

[samgrant]

If the South won?

Anything could have happened, one only has to imaging a series of events which would turn things one way or another.

Like a tree:

South Wins
| |
Total conquest, takes over continent Retains 1861 borders
| | | |

etc.

I imagine they retake Kentucky, but not West Virginia or Missouri. Make attempts at Cuba, but not Mexico.

Slavery continues into the 1880s causing the CSA to be an anathema to the entire world. Internal strife between increasingly dominant land/slave holders and small farmers/artisans. A new popular rebellion. Chaos!

Conflict till late 1990s when Aristocracy is finally defeated.

Turn of the century rapprochement by JSA (Jacksonian States of America?) to USA.

USA agrees to take in a ruined South under various conditions including the absolute abolition of slavery.

Reconstruction begins.

(Not my desired result of a Southern victory, just speculation.)

[samgrant]

On the other hand, if the South had won, making secession a precedent, all sorts of mayhem may have ensued.

The North, having lost it's connections to the Mississippi:

Would the Northwest secede from the East, or would it's rail and Great Lakes connections increase?

Would Louisiana, Mississippi secede and form an alliance with the North as their economies suffered for lack of trade? (The east-west connections being in severe disarray and neglected by the Virginia "aristocracy"?).

The more I think about it, the more, for the sake of the South!, I think it's just as well that things went the way it did.

Can someone come up with a rosier long run future for the South taking into consideration it's slave-labor based economy, virtually one trade crop agriculture, (the boom in tobacco may not have happened had all those wage-slave Northerners been so exposed to that weed), and meager industrial base, etc.?

[MobileBoy]

Matt,
At the end things finally got that bad and some slaves were trained as soldiers.Even Robert E Lee endorsed the plan but it was never taken seriously until the very end when it was to late.
Sam,
I don't really think that the North would have fallen apart with Southern victory.Likely the government of the Union would be altered to secure the happiness and needs of states .I think the fear of that consequence of secession was common in the North but I don't see anarchy resulting from Southern victory.
The Confederacy would have been extremely wealthy and definitely better off independent during the 19th century.In the 20th century there would be a major economic depression but the economy would've diversified to combat it.How soon or how much we don't really know.Living in the South today there's a lot of different jobs that would probably still be here.There are paper mills,chemical factories,grocery stores,construction work,teachers, and every normal job but nothing that I couldn't see being here if the Confederacy had won the war.I think that taxes would be a lot lower and that the politically correct nonsense wouldn't rule down in Dixie.I worry about the interstate and the bridge over Mobile Bay not being here but other than that nothing.I do worry about civil rights issues and fair treatment of blacks being an issue.However, slavery aside the black community where I teach couldn't possibly be any worse.Most of the kids are on drugs,they live in a society where children are brought up dependent on welfare and have no work ethic.Crime is rampant,violence is everywhere, and nobody is willing to work period much less better themselves.Not to mention 5 babies by 5 different men is considered normal.For a black male to go to prison is considered just part of life.I really can't see how the black community where I teach could be any worse off outside from slavery.Sorry for the rant but things are bad and though I don't have a solution this liberal nonsense about blaming society is making things worse.

[milhistbuff1]

Mobileboy
I should have been more clear, I meant, bad enough, but soon enough to do some good. If it had been done in early 64 instead of a month before the end, lets say. Not to mention CSA slave units would be perfect for a guerrilla war. Your thoughts?
Respectfully,
Matt

[samgrant]

If so, the whole idea of nationhood would have been changed.

No longer would the common bonds of independence from England, the whole Revolutionary War, Washington as father of the nation, etc. be a major thing to bind the states together.

In the CSA, and maybe the USA, there now would be a precedent for any state or states to secede from what ever union they were a part of. States would secede for whatever reason they wanted (tariffs?) because that was OK now.

We'd have a "Balkanized" North America, with all that that might imply for the future.