What if Lincoln had LOST the 1860 election?

[OpnDownfall]

Lincoln's election was to be the excuse for secession, not its cause. Secession had already been decided upon when the Fire-Eaters split the Democratic Party in 1860.
As far as the slave owning oligarchy and Fire-Eaters were concerned Douglas was just as much an anathema as Lincoln, if not more so.
Douglas' election would only delay the inevitable. If it appeared that Douglas' appeal in the south was strong enough to delay secession, then, rest assured SC would have provided the spark to start the secession ball rolling i.e., attacking the Union garrison, in whatever military post they resided in at the time.