Unsolved History

[cw1865]

Uh-Oh, 1:00AM, Pickett's Charge, looks like they're going to win the war with that fence.....guess I'm staying up late

[unionblue]

cw1865,

Prepare for disappointment.

Sincerely,
Unionblue

[timewalker]

So don't keep us in suspense! Did they win the war?

[cw1865]

Originally Posted by unionblue

cw1865,

Prepare for disappointment.

Sincerely,
Unionblue

It was okay, what else do you expect from a 1 hour show? Perhaps a time travel machine where we can witness it first hand? hehe

The 'shoe' story turns into, the armies met because Confederates were seeking to 'replenish supplies'

Its Pickett's charge because Virginians named things after Virginians.

They had some live demonstrations showing the effect of rifled musket fire and cannons loaded with cannister.

The meat of the show was an analysis really of Pickett's charge.

Based on the firepower present, the show hypothesizes that the rifled muskets and cannons should've caused 9,000 casualties, but the Confederates suffered far less than expected based on an assault force of 15,000.

The show essentially concludes that the Confederates suffer less casualties because there were less than 15,000 involved in the assault. They claim that many men didn't participate (veterans judging the charge to be suicidal).

The show also points out that the Emmitsburg fences were 'kill zones' - difficult to take down and when there was a gap, it acted like a funnel where Union artillery and musket fire could concentrate.

The best thing about the show was the old map of the battlefield prepared 2 months after the war indicating the location of Confederate burials. It was the practice at the time to essentially bury the soldiers where they had fallen, but obviously the graves had been moved; so they were trying to analyze where the Confederates were suffering their losses.

At least it was a show about history; as opposed to yet another installment of 'Ice Road Truckers' and other non-historical events.

[5fish]

I AGREE WITH THEIR CONCLUSION. There should have had more dead then were reported. It means that less men were involved in the charge then recorded. How could that happen for one Lee's readiness reports on the numbers of men per unit were incorrect or soldiers did not follow orders and marched out towards cemetery ridge. The last thing is the men did march out and just laid down and never made it to the ridge and when the time was right return back to their lines.

I lean towards Lee's readiness reports being off. I bet his army was much smaller then recorded in history. I bet if we knew how small his army was we all be surprised..

We live and die by the "Official Reports" but they full on inaccurate information due to the fact humans write them and use them for personal gain.

I agree that map of where the men had fallen was amazing. We have a detailed look at Pickett's Charge with that map.

[cw1865]

Just some wild speculation, hoping to spark some discussion...

Is it possible that Confederate commanders are Over-Reporting numbers present hoping to better compete for resources?

Is it possible that the Confederates UNDER-reported casualties (being the numerically inferior force after a drubbing like Gettysburg, there is incentive for the Confederates to appear to Meade that the Army of Northern Virginia has bigger fangs than it has)?

[Elennsar]

It's possible.

Lee started "with almost 78,000 of all arms, but not including Corse's brigade, and picked up along the way at least 3,600 troops in Jenkisn and Imboden's commands. The 1st Md. Infantry Battalion and the Baltimore Light Artillery battery joined Ewell's corps in the Shenandoah Valley. Two offficials in the Confederate War Dept. reported in their diaries, apparently independently of each other, that Lee took withi him 70,000 effectives or fighting men. As it was a common practice among Confederates to not include officers in their estimates, these figures probably did not do so, although they made up on the average 8 percent of the total." - Coddington.

Subtract three regiments of Early's division (perhaps a a thousand men, tops, probably closer to eight hundred.), the 44th North Carolina Infantry (seven hundred), two regiments of cavalry (maybe another thousand?) and straggling and so on (who knows).

Subtract sixteen hundred eighty (reported) casualties "in minor but nameless skirmishes and in the engagements at Brandy Station, Wincehster, Aldie, Upperville, and Hanover." (Coddington again)

So Lee's PFD strength would be, if these numbers are not complete lies, at least seventy thousand men by July 1.

Underreporting of casualties seems far more likely than overreporting of numbers to begin with, though the Confederates use of "effectives" and such could easily be used to blurr actual men-and-officers-ready-for-battle.

But assuming distorted figures are possible, a couple numbers.

Lee would presumably have had no more than 85,000 men at any point in the campaign.

Similarly, he presumably would have had no less than 65,000.

Casualties...anywhere between about 21-22,000 to 28,000+.

On what basis did they calculate "9,000" casualties out of 15,000 or so?

Even 40% losses were very high in the Civil War, though some unlucky units got up to 70%+. Shooting accurately was not a strong suit of Civil War soldiers.

As to cannister, there's an article I recall reading that indicates that while deadly, it's not that deadly.

http://www.brettschulte.net/ACWCGDC/index.html Click on the Check out Drew Wagenhoffer's Artillery Effectiveness Case Study Here link (if you can read Doc files. If not, I sugget getting Open Office.)

I'm not one for wild speculation theories (though I'll read 'em.) Coddington is a safe "if the reporting was more or less accurate." baseline. Those interested in speculating, play with it as you will.

[5fish]

I was reading the study and if I understood it the close in canster shoot was 11.5% kill rate. Hekept refering to his game so I could not get see any figures relating to history to relates his srudy.

a lost thought......

[Elennsar]

Okay.

Assuming his calculations are correct.

In twenty minutes, the 11th Ohio (Independent) Battery, with six 6 pound smoothbore cannons, inflicted an average of 34 casualties.

That means that in a bit over an hour and a half (100 minutes), it inflicted at most 172 casualties on Hebert's brigade, probably less as the estimate of casualties attributable to the Ohioans is generous.

172 casualties in a less than two hour period out of a total of 404 in the four hours of fighting the brigade faced.

In brief: Not so effective. Useful, yes. A massacre, no.

[M E Wolf]

Dear CW1865;

If they were naming the charge after Virginians--it should have been "Lee's Charge" as it was his plan to do so. But, Pickett's Charge is just as fine and entrenched in history; it is a marker to which nobody has to ask 'which Lee's Charge' are you talking about.

I agree with the Emmitsburg fence line being a killing zone for Infantry; especially for the first wave. Now, if pioneers had chopped the fence down and or first wave dismantled it; I suspect the 4th wave of ranks would get through safer. And, for the Generals on horseback, these men jumped fences on fox hunts and were taught to take fences, etc; at West Point.

I would have enjoyed getting a copy of that map; the two months after the battle of Gettysburg. I agree, that it would have shown more accurately where the mass of casualties were at any given point of the charges by the various commanding officers--not just Pickett's.

As for the numbers--I've often seen numbers waffle and unless there is a muster roll, that records numbers, names, etc; the numbers are never accurate. Slow rejoiners after separation, fighting in another company when separated with theirs, lost and a host of other explainations beyond 'missing,' 'captured', wounded and or killed and haven't been reported--leaves numbers up in the air.

As far as the canister comment -- Well, I remember General R. Garnett leading his men forward and just 'vanishing' as his horse ran back to the rear with a shoulder wound. Only his sword was found. That said; in short distance taking a full blast from canister or even these re-enactor charges will do injury. Shrapnel tearing people to bits, double canister even more--I have to believe that, in these cases--it is easy for people to just vanish into bits of flesh and bone when facing a full blast. In some official records, damage from cannons/artillery pieces are horrific as well as graphic. It is very possible several people 'vanished' due to these similiar circumstances. In Jeff Sharra's book "Last Full Measure"; one of his chapters with Chamberlain leading; reads that his color bearer was there and just turning his head, felt a breeze and turned to see his color bearer to give a command and he was gone, the flag just starting to fall.
Nothing of the color sergeant was to be found. Also, those who crawled off somewhere and died alone, unburied and absorbed into the ground through time.

And, Shelby Foote in his comments in the back of "Gettysburg", said he wouldn't join the charge if he knew what he knew now. So, it could be very logicial seeing how senseless the loss of life was; to appear as to have taken a hit and lay down out of harms way. People could have excused it as hitting their head and laying senseless.

Very interesting to say the least--good post CW1865!

Just some thoughts.

Respectfully submitted for consideration,
M. E. Wolf